Marco Consolo – http://marcoconsolo.altervista.org/ –
Celebrates the right of Argentina and the continental. With a difference of less than 3% and a narrow margin of 700,000 votes, the ballot wins its candidate, Mauricio Macri, the “Argentine Berlusconi”, who beat Daniel Scioli, the candidate of the Frente para la Victoria who somehow represented the continuism (51.6% to Macri, Scioli to 48.3%, 22% abstention). The settlement of Macri is scheduled for Dec. 10. It ‘the first time since 1998, when Hugo Chavez won the elections in Venezuela, that the ballot box to the right riconsegnano the government of a country that was looking for an alternative.
Decisive factor in the victory was the vote of Peronism conservative, that the first round had voted for Sergio Massa’s reach third. Sniffed the air, Massa had asked for a sign of “change”, implicitly guaranteeing its support “critical” to the right of Macri who managed to add up the votes of an important part of the conservative electorate Peronism. Massa today provides the elect in the different provinces and its votes in Parliament.
In the result has also played support for the right to be part of “social democrats” Unión Cívica Radical, past and barrel with his right from the first round .
The reasons for the defeat
A defeat expected with multiple causes. First, the erosion of consensus after 12 years of uninterrupted management with several errors, a high inflation that eroded the purchasing power of wages, some high-profile cases of corruption, the difficulty in responding to attacks by international powers, the need to the face of internal contradictions, its a process of transformation, a style of self-government.
The decisive factor was the ongoing offensive of the mass media (international and Argentine) against the government and against the Anti-monopoly on the media, with the group Clarin in the front row. The government failed to dismantle the “narrative” of “media latifundia”, which took for granted a win Macri (with a distance of less than 16 points), convincing the most conservative sectors that the “game was over.” Later, the political right will return the favor in the media: the Law on Media will be another of the objectives of the conservative restoration.
It certainly working against the government the international crisis, whose impact on Latin American economies has meant, among ‘ another, having to review the implementation of social plans and redistributive.
Important chapter is the new “middle class”, who voted for change (as in Brazil) despite the obvious improvement of their living conditions and purchasing power. It ‘a fact that is repeated in several countries of the continent and that should give pause. In the Argentine case, in recent decades the behavior of the middle class has fluctuated between radical positions and periods reactionaries, even pro-coup. But more generally, the lesson of the polls is not just pull out of poverty amp sectors of the population for electoral support. The new middle class has embraced the social achievements, highlighted by increased consumption capacity. Do not you think you can really go back, because recent years have convinced him of the irreversibility of processes. Not only. In many cases, the new middle class claims for itself the resources allocated to pro-poor in a “war between the ex-poor and still poor.”
Last but not least , the candidate of the outgoing government, Daniel Scioli, governor for a short while in the Province of Buenos Aires, disliked by the more militant sectors of “Kirchnerism” for its management and its moderate constraints passed by former President Carlos Menem . A candidate with little charisma, whose image is closer to the Peronism of the past years, that the “Kirchnerism” the twenty-first century. And Cristina Fernandez preferred to keep a safe distance dall’agone election. But in these 12 years, both Nestor, Cristina that have failed to make room for any successor, can represent a credible and successful. A choice which has weighed various sectors who have decided to vote in white, despite Scioli has recovered about 3 million votes from the first round.
And that’s the worst predictions of the vigil have come true without surprises. The sensational performance of Macri in the first round, had alerted the militants “kirchneristi” who led a generous campaign door to door, of which Argentina had no recent memories. But it was not enough. The 12-year rule “Kirchner” (Before Nestor Kirchner and Cristina Fernandez after his death) were not enough to consolidate an organized social base that would guarantee the continuity of the social transformations of Argentina.
The modern face of the right
In line with the suggestions of the spin doctors of the marketing election, Macri reinvented itself. He did everything possible to alienate itself from the image of the right of “dinosaurs coup” of the past, the “gravedigger” of social achievements, presenting a sign of strength captivating name “Cambiemos” . During the campaign he had to recognize some positive transformations of the government of Cristina Fernandez, coming to claim to “believe in the role of a strong state.” But true to the motto of veltroni “but also …”, during the election campaign promised state and market, and multinational homeland. A devaluation of the currency, the elimination of state subsidies to transport electricity, gas, and a cut in social programs generalized in favor of the poor. In other words, the view of the future is that of a fall in the purchasing power of wages.
And a few hours after the election results, it promised that the economy will be led by a group of “6 technicians”, stressing the need to deal with the “Fondos Buitre”, to recover the “competitiveness required” for the country’s economy .
gloating the “financial markets” and especially the “vulture funds”, which, thanks to a US judge complacent, they put a heavy burden on their stratospheric profits to buy at bargain prices of external debt and that they never wanted to accept the proposed restructuring of government debt.
In danger are also policies in defense of Human Rights, one of the flags of the government, with hundreds of trials of military and civilian leaders of the genocide of the dictatorship and which today organize their revenge.
Macri complex for the parliamentary framework, which has no majority either in the House, nor the Senate (the latter in the hands of “Kirchnerism”). But it controls many of the most important provinces, including that of Buenos Aires, the largest in the country, the former Peronist stronghold which concentrates almost 40% of voters, conquered in the first round just to Daniel Scioli.
Peronism in dispute
There is no doubt that the election result opens the dispute over control and representation of the Justicialista Party, the Peronist party, historic tank in electoral terms, of power, cronyism and consensus.
In the runoff, the real surprise was the vote Cordoba, in the hands of the Peronist governor José Manuel de la Sota, who guaranteed to Macri almost 70% of the votes in the province, making a lot of difference in the final result.
The two figures emerging today seem so those of Sergio Massa (real balance of power) and that of Jose Manuel De la Sota. Both states support “critical” to the government of Macri and counting on several MPs. It is not to be discarded that some deputy elected with Massa may swell the ranks of “macrismo.”
As is known, in the past the complex phenomenon Peronist had the ability to hold together conflicting options and grinding each other (by the radical left of the “Montoneros” , until the death squads of the “Triple A”) and the figure of Juan Domingo Peron and Evita has represented the historical glue. Nestor Kircher first and then with Cristina Fernandez, in the Peronism was born a sort of “third way”, with the attempt to build the wing “Kirchner” with mass organizations, especially among young people.
The main unknown concerns precisely those organizations, grown in the 12-year rule. The sectors most militants had twisted my mouth on the candidacy of Scioli, and until the last maintained a critical position. It will be to see if they can withstand the impact of displacement from positions of power guaranteed by the umbrella of the government, “Kirchner”. And if the trade union movement, strongly divided, unable to regain its leading role autonomous from the government.
The international framework
The result will have an impact on the political landscape of Latin America in the last 15 years characterized by the presence of progressive and leftist governments, which had bet on unity and regional integration, the United States moving away from the orbit.
Although pragmatically says it will continue to do business with China, Macri confirmed its wish to reconnect the United States (and Israel, with an eye to the important Jewish community of the country) to the International Monetary Fund, and his beloved friends such as former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, ( who described him as “a hope for all Latin Americans … who need brilliant leaders”), the Partido Popular of Spain Rajoy, and the Venezuelan opposition, at his side during the election campaign.
The new President has reiterated that he will ask the withdrawal of Venezuela from Mercosur, accused of failing to respect the so-called “Democratic Clause” to “abuses against opponents and freedom of expression.” A clause inspired by the one in force in the Organization of American States (OAS).
The clause provides for the possibility of sanctions as the total or partial closure of land borders, suspension or limitation of trade, air traffic and shipping, communications, administration of energy and services.
The frontal attack on Venezuela has come in recent days by the same OAS that “Che” Guevara defined as “Ministry of Colonies” of the United States. The current Secretary General, the Uruguayan Luis Almagro, a few days ago attacked heavily Venezuelan electoral authorities, provoking public distancing former President “Pepe” Mujica.
The right-wing Latin American (and the US) now they aim to expand to the maximum “the domino effect” across the continent, starting from the upcoming elections in Venezuela on December 6, and then stick to the bottom of the government of Dilma Rousseff in Brazil. And as others. Mala tempora currunt for transformation processes in Latin America. There is little discussion of the past neo-liberal, with old answers to new questions. Young people have not known nor dictatorship, nor the long neo-liberal night. Today, the key lies in the future, which promises to be turbulent.