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**MARKET OUTLOOK**

India & International Market Highlights:

• India`s Cotton exports are expected to rise by 21.27% to 70 lakh bales during the 2015-16 season, mostly due to rise in demand from Pakistan.

• The decline of the Chinese currency renminbi has raised import prices of yarn above domestic price levels.

North Zone:

Cotton traded steady tone across major spot markets of north India on Wednesday.  In Punjab, ready delivery cotton traded at Rs 3545-3550 a maund. In Haryana, it offered at Rs 3,530-3,540 while in Rajasthan, ready delivery new cotton quoted at Rs 3,490-3,550 a maund.

Central Zone:

Cotton spot prices steday tone across west India market on Wednesday. Gujarat Sankar-6 cotton traded at  Rs 33700-34200 per candy. while B-Grade Cotton traded flat at Rs 33200-33500 per candy. V 797 cotton offered at Rs 22500-23500 a candy. While in Maharashtra, mech-1 good grade quoted at Rs 33700-34200 a candy.

South Zone:

Cotton spot price was steady tone across the major trading centers of south India.  

US Cotton Futures :

Cotton futures post biggest gains in two weeks: February 03, 2016 – Cotton futures surged on Monday to their highest single-session gains in two weeks, lifted by a weaker dollar and end-user buying at low price levels and bucking a rout across most commodities. Still, prices remained within the same tight range they have been trading in for months. “They’re not chasing it higher,” said Chris Kramedjian, a risk management consultant with INTL FCStone in Nashville, Tennessee, noting that physical buying evaporated at the upper end of the day’s range. “We’re still in the middle of the range.” March cotton on ICE Futures US settled up 0.66 cent, or 1.1 percent, at 61.79 cents per lb. It traded within a range of 60.85 and 62.00 cents a lb. Total futures market volume rose by 1,696 to 38,571 lots. Data showed total open interest gained 2,648 to 198,357 contracts in the previous session. Certificated cotton stocks deliverable as of January 29 totalled 27,784 480-lb bales, down from 28,706 in the previous session. The dollar index was down 0.59 percent. The Thomson Reuters CoreCommodity CRB Index, which tracks 19 commodities, was down 1.96 percent. Speculators cut their net long position to 18,555 lots from 22,806 lots in the latest week. The Relative Strength Index in the most-active contract rose to 46.363. Copyright Reuters, 2016

Pakistan :

Slow off-take on cotton market: February 2nd, 2016 – KARACHI: Much of the trading activity remained around low quality cotton on Monday as the availability of quality lint is becoming difficult with each passing day. Floor brokers said that out of 1.1 million bales held by ginners, only 30 per cent of stocks are of quality lint. On an average 1.2m bales are consumed per month by the spinning industry under normal circumstances, but current depressed demand on the cotton yarn market is keeping cotton off-take slow, they added. With around seven months for the arrival of cotton next crop (2016-17) there should have been frenzied buying from spinners. The spinning industry continues to import cotton from Indian and only last week around one million bales were imported, brokers added. According to market sources, most deals finalised between spinners and ginners were in lower quality cotton priced at Rs5,550 to R5s,650 per maund. The Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) cut its spot rates by Rs50 per maund to Rs5,400. Major deals on ready counter were: 3,700 bales from Sanghar (Rs4,550 to Rs4,725 per maund), 400 bales from Shahdadpur (Rs4,750), 600 bales from Burewala (Rs4,850), 400 bales from Fort Abbas (Rs5,350), 400 bales from Multan (Rs5,400), 400 bales from Layyah (Rs5,500), 600 bales from Mianwali (Rs5,500 to Rs5,550), 600 bales from Yazman Mandi (Rs5,650), 1,000 bales from Rahimyar Khan (Rs5,650).

China :

China to lose, to Vietnam, top rank among cotton importers: 2nd Feb 2016 – China, which last season lost to India the title of the world’s top cotton producer, is to give up top rank in imports too, the International Cotton Advisory Committee said, citing the enhanced competitiveness of polyester. The committee deepened to 40%, from 34%, its forecast for the top in Chinese cotton imports in 2015-16, taking the estimate from 1.2m tonnes to 1.08m tonnes (5.0m bales). Imports at that level – besides coming in below expectations of commentators such as the US Department of Agriculture, which forecasts them at 5.5m bales — would be the lowest in 13 years. And they would, on ICAC projections, demote China to equal second, with Bangladesh, on cotton imports, behind Vietnam, which is expected to buy 1.1m tonnes this season. “Cotton imports by Vietnam in the first four months of 2015-16,” which began in August, “totalled 327,000 tonnes, while those by China totalled 247,000 tonnes,” the committee noted.
Cotton vs polyester: The ICAC highlighted the role in Vietnam’s rise as a cotton importer, with volumes seen soaring 17% this season, its low labour costs. “Consumption in both Vietnam and Bangladesh is increasing steadily, due to lower production costs, but both produce very little cotton, and instead must rely on imports to meet demand,” the committee said. However, it also flagged the enhanced competitiveness of polyester, of which China produces 72% of global supplies, making this fibre a particularly acute rival to cotton for the country’s mills. Polyester’s discount to cotton has “continued to widen”, the ICAC said, reporting that values of the artificial fibre had averaged 48 cents a pound in the first half of 2015-16. Cotton prices, as measured by the Cotlook A index, averaged 70 cents a pound. “The ongoing drop in polyester prices cuts into cotton’s market share, particularly in China where polyester has been favoured over cotton in recent seasons,” the committee said, cutting by 200,000 tonnes to 7.1m tonnes its estimate for Chinese cotton consumption in 2015-16.
New season forecasts: The comments came as the ICAC left little changed its forecast for world cotton inventories at the close of this season, pegging the figure at 20.5m tonnes, a drop of some 1.6m tonnes year on year. And, in its first estimates for 2016-17, it forecast a further drop in inventories, albeit at a far slower rate, of some 1m tonnes, against expectations of improved production and flat consumption. Inventories, at 19.5m tonnes, would at the close of 2016-17 fall below 20m tonnes for the first time in four years, but remain high by historical standards, equivalent to 80.7% of annual consumption. The ICAC gave no explanation for its forecasts, which saw world production improving to 23.1m tonnes, but remaining behind world consumption, at 24.1m tonnes. Courtesy – by Agrimoney.com